Day-to-Day Killings in Mexico Fall 37% During the Sheinbaum Administration, As per Government Figures

The average number of per-day homicides monthly in Mexico has dropped by thirty-seven percent since Head of State Claudia Sheinbaum assumed power, according to recent administrative data. But, security specialists have cautioned that homicide data may not indicate enhanced national safety.

Marked Decline in Per-Day Figures

There was an mean of nearly 55 murders a day in last November as opposed to nearly 87 when Claudia Sheinbaum took the leadership in the previous September. This announcement was provided by the director of the country’s national safety system, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the leader's daily press briefing on a recent Tuesday.

“The outcome in murders that we have seen in these months is very significant,” Sheinbaum stated, noting that in November the smallest number of murders were recorded for any single November in the past decade.

Recent Background and Government Plan

Fierce cartel rivalries, alongside the government’s heavily militarised campaigns to confront the cartels, have led to Mexico’s homicide rate rise sharply in the past few years. The figure peaked at a peak of 36,773 homicides in 2020, as reported by the country’s official data agency.

That resulted in Mexico a murder figure more than 4x higher than that of the United States. Since then, homicides have been on the decrease, dropping to 33,550 last year. Sheinbaum has credited her public safety plan for an apparently steeper decline in killings in the current year.

At a news briefing in August, the President stated: “There is a plan, we have tracking of the strategy, and there is specific monitoring locality by locality in some cases. The approach works. And we have to persist at it daily.”

The central elements of the President's safety strategy encompass:

• Strengthening Mexico’s federal guard.
• Enhancing information gathering and investigation work.
• Greater coordination between various authorities.

Expert Caution and Data Concerns

However, public safety experts urged caution that focusing solely on homicide statistics to paint a picture of improved security was problematic. This is particularly true in light of the increase in different crimes such as people going missing.

“It would be excellent information if this were a drop, but I think we shouldn't just look at the murder numbers and think: ‘Alright, excellent,’” commented Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an authority on Mexican cartels. “I would be cautiously optimistic.”

As reported by the policy research thinktank Mexico Evalúa, murders in total dropped by over 20% in the initial 10 months of this year relative to the same timeframe last year. However, disappearances have increased by 15% and in certain regions have increased by as much as 200%.

“Data on homicides is not reliable for assessing the situation of insecurity,” argued Armando Vargas, a safety analyst at Mexico Evalúa. “First, we have law enforcement and investigators who do not have the resources or the inclination to correctly identify and classify bodies. Secondly, organised [criminals] … have the capability to mask violence through disappearances.”

Vargas pointed out that using monthly averages of daily killings was similarly concerning because it may mask periods when there were particularly high levels of murders.

“Employing the per-day average renders high peaks of violent crime less visible,” he stated.

Detentions and Seizures as Measures of Success

Where the administration can highlight the success of its security strategy is on arrests and seizures. Close to 40,000 people were apprehended between last October and this past November for major offenses, per official data. Over 20,000 guns were taken and 311 tonnes of drugs confiscated.

“The former US president can't claim President Sheinbaum of inaction, because actually she is doing a lot with these many thousands of arrests, thousands of seizures, and all the tactical degrading of criminal groups. It’s extremely politically advantageous,” said Vargas.

Persistent Unrest and Public Frustration

Yet notwithstanding these actions, Mexico is still plagued by high bloodshed, with several regions in the grip of cartel-fueled conflict. In the previous month there was a high-profile killing of a well-liked local official in the state of Michoacan, among 10 local leaders assassinated in the past year.

Weeks later, many thousands of protesters demonstrated in the capital and throughout the country to show their frustration at graft and drug violence.

“The federal government frames [data] in a way to build a narrative of improvement. From a political standpoint it’s highly successful, socially it’s highly debatable,” the analyst concluded.